Will Counter-Strike remain the King of FPS esports?

If you are into FPS Esports then you will have come across Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, otherwise known as CS:GO, the largest and most popular one. Awarding over $145 million in prize money across its many tournaments, CS:GO dwarfs the next FPS on list; Player Unknown’s Battlegrounds (PUBG), which in turn has awarded over $52 million. This places CS:GO as the number 1 FPS with regards to prize money, and in the top 3 for games across the board. Additionally, CS:GO has the most professional players and number of tournaments of any Esports to date. Solidifying itself as a superpower amongst the gaming world. The question is, can and will CS:GO hold onto this position?

Counter-Strike’s History

The predecessor to CS:GO was simply called Counter-Strike, a mod of Half-Life using its engine GoldSrc. Minh Le the co-creator started work on Counter-Strike in his last year of university, releasing the first beta in June 1999, which immediately gained popularity. The success of Counter-Strike was quickly noticed by Valve, who acquired the rights and the developers working on it, in 2000. Development on Counter-Strike quickly increased with Ritual Entertainment, Turtle Rock Studios and Valve developing the second game in the series; Counter Strike: Condition Zero, which was released in 2004. Though Condition Zero had mixed reviews on release, Valve was not deterred and released a third game Counter-Strike: Source in the same year with the new source engine, which would be used for CS:GO later in 2012.

The DOTA series (Defense of the Ancients), much like CS:GO, started out as a mod. Created by a single developer Eul (Kyle Sommer), the game was also picked up by valve, releasing DOTA2 in 2013. DOTA2 has currently awarded the most prize money of all games, paying players a total of $310 million dollars. Now this does make an interesting link between the humble beginnings of games created by passionate fans, Valve, and Esport success. However, this is not the only defining factor for a large esport presence as we will discuss.

Counter-Strike as an Early Esport 2001-2007

The Counter-Strike series has been a major player in the Esports scene since the year 2000 when Valve acquired the rights to the original game. Other major titles included the quake series (Quake 3 Arena releasing a year earlier in 1999 and Quake 4 in 2005), and the Halo series (Halo: Combat evolved releasing in 2001 and Halo 2 in 2004). However, Counter-Strike showed to be the dominant game in total tournament earnings, number of professional players and number of tournaments hosted.

The New Wave of FPS Esports 

As of 2022 many new FPS games such as Player Unknown Battlegrounds (PUBG), Rainbow Six Siege, Apex Legends and Valorant have entered the scene gaining popularity and knocking many of these older game series down the ladder. The new releases in the Quake Series (Quake Live 2010 and Quake Champions 2017) and the Halo series (Halo reach 2012, Halo 5: Guardians 2015, Halo infinite 2021) have not managed to rival these new games as their game modes have simply become less popular. CS:GO on the other hand has stayed strong. The story for the Quake and Halo games is quite different as you can see here:

So it seems that CS:GO is dominating the field for the moment, but that might very well change. Though none of the newer games have as high tournament earnings, as many pro players, as many tournaments per year, as well as less viewership for the major tournaments. They are still fairly new games with plenty of room to grow. This is especially true for Apex Legends and Valorant which were released in 2019 and 2020 respectively. So, let’s ask: What are the real factors in creating a long lasting and top level esport?

What Makes a Good Esport

The core ingredients to a successful esport are competitive play, a large player base, a steep learning curve and funding to run tournaments. Whilst Competitive play that is balanced and fair is seen across all the games mentioned, there are differences in player base, learning curves and funding that we can talk about.

Player Base

It’s the casual player base who watch the tournaments and spend money on the games that help them rise as Esports. In the cases of Rainbow Six Siege and PUBG, both these games have a decreasing player base which is not a good sign for the longevity of their Esport presence. However, CSGO, Valorant and Apex Legends all have player counts that continue to rise. With Valorant and Apex legends being the newer games on the list they could be challengers for that top FPS spot.

Learning Curves

When it comes to the learning curve of a game, it must be stated that its somewhat subjective to quantify. However, CS:GO is renowned for being one of the most difficult. With a very difficult weapon sandbox to master, advanced movement techniques, map knowledge, complex communication, and teamwork, CS:GO has a very high skill ceiling. The combination of it being relatively easy to learn the basics but incredibly hard to master is what I believe sets CS:GO above the rest. Now before I hear anyone shouting at their screens about the complex strategies in Rainbow Six, the character mechanics in apex legends or the nuances to the abilities in Valorant, it goes without saying that all these games take ample amounts of skill, all with their own individual mechanics to master. That’s why they are all top FPS Esports. That said, my list goes like this.

1. Counter-Strike: Global Offensive
2. Rainbow Six: Siege
3. Valorant
4. Apex legends
5. PlayerUnkown’s Battlegrounds

Funding

Funding for Esports can come from multiple different avenues, game developers, sponsorships and partnerships, tournament organizers and crowdfunding are all sources of funding. But the most important factor is how the game developers decide to run the Esports scene in the first place.

The Developers Influence

All these games have different developers, CSGO by Valve, Rainbow Six: Siege by Ubisoft, Valorant by Riot Games, Apex legends by EA Games, and PUBG by KRAFTON and PUBG Corporation.

Each developer controls how the Esports tournaments are managed and how much control is given to the players, teams, and other organizations. You must remember that having a good Esports presence is very effective marketing for the game, but it comes with a high price tag and effects how the game is perceived. So, developers choose the methods that best suit their marketing goals.  

On one side you have Riot, who controls every aspect of the professional leagues with League of Legends. On the other side of the spectrum, you have Valve, who have an open tournament circuit with anyone able to create a tournament with the support of Valve.

Valve’s method creates a system in which players, teams, and tournament organizers have much more control. As well as having no cap to the number of tournaments allowed, which creates benefits semi pro and amateur leagues not seen to the same extent in a game like League of Legends. Whereas Riot’s method allows for the complete control of the integrity of the game and the ability to manage the growth of the Esport.

The main problem with Valve’s method is that there is no centralized party to govern tournament rules and problems that present themselves. This has created problematic situations like tournaments having different sets of rules or other things like players being banned from one tournament will just play in a tournament held by different organisers. The problems CS:GO has as a whole are fought between multiple interests which can delay and hurt the progress of the game.

The problem with Riot’s method is that the Esports players, teams, and investors are at the complete whim of Riot. The business interests of Riot often cause conflict with the players and teams involved who have little say, and no protection. This was seen with the ban of TDK and Renegades who had no information given on the banning process, and no right to appeal.

The Future of FPS esports 

So now we have had a look at what makes a good esport, which of these games could potentially rival CSGO as the next King of FPS?

From the data there seems to be one game that sticks out: Valorant. With an increasing player base, a high number of professional players and tournaments and an impressive 1.5 million daily active users in the year it was released. Valorant does show itself to be the only real contender out of the current FPS esports.

An honorable mention goes to Apex Legends which is growing as to date with an increasing player base but is doing this at a much lower rate to Valorant. Rainbow six siege and PUBG both have a declining player base which is a pretty clear sign that neither game will show much growth and can be disregarded for taking the number 1 spot.

CS:GO Vs Valorant (Valve Vs Riot)

CS:GO is a 5 v 5 tactical FPS in which a team of five terrorists try to plant a bomb and defend it from a team of five counter terrorists until the timer runs out or until one team is eliminated, otherwise known as bomb defusal or search and destroy. Valorant also uses a search and destroy game mode, taking inspiration from CS:GO borrowing many mechanics such as inaccuracy while moving, the buy menu and spray patterns. But that doesn’t mean they are all the same, because instead of having utility such as smokes, flashes, explosives and incendiary grenades, Valorant has a set of agents which have different abilities. Despite the differences, it was obvious that Valorant used CS:GO as inspiration and was almost made as to rival it directly. What I’m getting to is that with both CS:GO and Valorant being so far ahead of the crowd, it shows that the search and destroy game mode clearly produces a great viewing experience and in turn a popular Esport.

Both games have competitive gameplay, are hard to master and have large growing player bases. So the rise of Valorant does look it could be the game that could compete with CS:GO for the number 1 spot. The main difference between these games other than the slightly more modern implementation of agents and abilities is how the games developers manage the Esports.

Riot in the past with League of Legends took full control of professional play which has shown to have great success with the 2022 League of Legends world championship bringing in 5.1 Million viewers at its peak. But this time with Valorant, Riot is taking an approach more similar to how Valve run CS:GO with an open tournament format. The change in approach I think is a wise decision because many of the players and viewers for Valorant cross over with CS:GO. Many CS:GO professional players are switching over for a new start in a more modern game and for a different gaming environment. Therefore, using a similar format for the esport will be closer to what these players and viewers are already used to.

Now when comparing CS:GO to Valorant for 2023, it does look like CSGO will still be holding that top spot because CS:GO has 10 million more monthly active players then Valorant by the end of 2022.

Valorant is matching the growth rate of CS:GO in active players which is a very good sign for the game. It won’t be within 2023 but Valorant does have a chance of reaching the size of CS:GO in next few years. On the other hand, with Valorant being so new the interest in the game after the initial hype could decrease resulting in the game losing traction.  It will be interesting to see what Valorant will achieve in the next few years. Do you think Valorant will be the next FPS king or will the tried and tested Counter-Strike manage to hold it’s spot for years, or perhaps even more decades to come.